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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 69

New England Patriots 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to DEN 33, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-J.Norwood MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-31-J.Jones at DEN 31. 31-J.Jones to DEN 31 for no gain (11-J.Norwood).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.33 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 69, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 27, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP