4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
NE Away

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
Sunday 2016-12-18 · 16:25 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌨 Snow Spread -3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NE
59.1%
DEN
40.9%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.178 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.151 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Tom Brady (NE): +0.237 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NE 23
–
DEN 20
Projected margin: NE by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

NE

Danny Amendola WR Out Ankle
Martellus Bennett TE Questionable Ankle
Malcolm Butler CB Questionable Hip
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
Jordan Richards S Questionable Knee
Elandon Roberts LB Questionable Hamstring
Eric Rowe CB Questionable Hamstring
Matt Slater WR Questionable Foot

DEN

Casey Kreiter LS Out Calf
Brandon Marshall LB Out Hamstring
Todd Davis LB Questionable Rib Cage

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 16
–
DEN 3

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:32 FG NE (12:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3 – DEN 0
  • Q1 07:02 FG DEN (7:02) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NE 3 – DEN 3
  • Q2 11:05 TD NE (11:05) 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – DEN 3
  • Q3 05:32 FG NE (5:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 13 – DEN 3
  • Q4 08:19 FG NE (8:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 16 – DEN 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (13:30) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to DEN 33, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-J.Norwood MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-31-J.Jones at DEN 31. 31-J.Jones to DEN 31 for no gain (11-J.Norwood).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 79%

    (12:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (11:27) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to NE 15, Center-45-T.Gafford, downed by DEN-36-K.Webster.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:00) 6-R.Allen punts 45 yards to DEN 38, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 93%

    (7:02) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 37%

    (4:51) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to DEN 7, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 14 at the 37
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 56%

    (5:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 29 yards to NE 8, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 22%

    (:39) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:39) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to NE 9, Center-45-T.Gafford. 11-J.Edelman to NE 25 for 16 yards (14-C.Latimer).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:27) 6-R.Allen punts 49 yards to DEN 32, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 37 for 5 yards (51-B.Mingo).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to NE 17, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 87%

    (5:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:38) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to NE 20, Center-45-T.Gafford. 11-J.Edelman to NE 23 for 3 yards (14-C.Latimer). PENALTY on NE-38-B.Bolden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 20.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 24%

    (:07) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to DEN 7, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:52) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to NE 30, Center-45-T.Gafford. 11-J.Edelman to NE 35 for 5 yards (49-Q.Gause).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:46) 6-R.Allen punts 49 yards to DEN 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-31-J.Jones.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 15 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to NE 47, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (8:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 73%

    (6:04) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Thomas (32-D.McCourty).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 81%

    (2:00) 29-L.Blount up the middle to DEN 26 for no gain (58-V.Miller, 51-T.Davis).