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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 37

Denver Broncos 3 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 29 yards to NE 8, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.48 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 37, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model