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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 51

New England Patriots 10 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(:39) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.07 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -1.82 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model