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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 27

New England Patriots 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.40 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model