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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 81

New England Patriots 10 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(12:27) 6-R.Allen punts 49 yards to DEN 32, Center-49-J.Cardona. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 37 for 5 yards (51-B.Mingo).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 81, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 38, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model