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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 22

New England Patriots 10 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.64 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model