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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 50

New England Patriots 13 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(:07) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to DEN 7, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.64 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 50, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model