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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 93

Denver Broncos 3 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to NE 47, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -3.43 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.02 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 93, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 51, worth -2.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model