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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 3

New England Patriots 13 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 3, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP