4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 83

New England Patriots 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 6-R.Allen punts 45 yards to DEN 38, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.56 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 83, worth -5.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model