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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 15

Denver Broncos 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.50 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 15, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 25, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model