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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 28

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 11

What Actually Happened

(9:27) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.50 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 28, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 38, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model