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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2016-12-18 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread 5.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

PHI
36.0%
BAL
64.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: -0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • BAL offense: -0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Joe Flacco (BAL): -0.028 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PHI 18
–
BAL 24
Projected margin: BAL by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

PHI

Darren Sproles RB Out Concussion
Halapoulivaati Vaitai T Out Knee
Allen Barbre G Questionable Hamstring
Brent Celek TE Questionable Stinger
Dorial Green-Beckham WR Questionable Abdomen
Kamu Grugier-Hill LB Questionable Illness
Jordan Matthews WR Questionable Ankle

BAL

Jimmy Smith CB Out Ankle
Crockett Gillmore TE Questionable Thigh
Anthony Levine LB Questionable Toe
Alex Lewis T Questionable Ankle
Jerraud Powers CB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 26
–
BAL 27

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:41 TD BAL (11:41) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-K.Aiken for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – BAL 6
  • Q1 04:47 FG PHI (4:47) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 3 – BAL 7
  • Q1 02:00 FG BAL (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Tucker's 10th 50-plus yard field ties NFL record set by Blair Walsh. PHI 3 – BAL 10
  • Q2 14:44 TD PHI (14:44) 24-R.Mathews right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL-54-Z.Orr was injured during the play. PHI 9 – BAL 10
  • Q2 09:27 FG BAL (9:27) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. PHI 11 – BAL 13
  • Q2 01:43 FG PHI (1:43) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 14 – BAL 13
  • Q2 00:16 TD BAL (:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 89-S.Smith for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 14 – BAL 19
  • Q4 14:51 FG PHI (14:51) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 17 – BAL 20
  • Q4 11:14 TD BAL (11:14) 30-K.Dixon left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 17 – BAL 26
  • Q4 02:26 FG PHI (2:26) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 20 – BAL 27
  • Q4 00:12 TD PHI (:12) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz scrambles left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 26 – BAL 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 17 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:42) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 60 yards to PHI 35, Center-46-M.Cox. 34-K.Barner to BAL 43 for 22 yards (33-M.Elam).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 79%

    (4:47) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 61%

    (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Tucker's 10th 50-plus yard field ties NFL record set by Blair Walsh.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 13 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:17) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 51 yards to BAL 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds. PENALTY on BAL-24-S.Wright, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 77%

    (9:27) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 64%

    (4:54) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz pushed ob at BAL 23 for 11 yards (50-A.McClellan; 21-L.Webb) [57-C.Mosley].

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 15 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%

    (1:43) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 15 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 50%

    (12:32) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 50%

    (8:05) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 47-T.Burton.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 12 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to PHI 12, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-84-D.Waller.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (14:51) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 64%

    (7:49) 69-D.Gordon reported in as eligible. 17-N.Agholor left end pushed ob at BAL 33 for 1 yard (32-E.Weddle).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 11 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

    (2:26) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 88 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:50) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to PHI 41, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-84-D.Waller.