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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 34

Philadelphia Eagles 11 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz pushed ob at BAL 23 for 11 yards (50-A.McClellan; 21-L.Webb) [57-C.Mosley].

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.65 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model