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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 39

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(8:05) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left to 47-T.Burton.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.63 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 39, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model