Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

(7:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to PHI 12, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-84-D.Waller.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.81 EP
70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 63, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model