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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 34

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 69-D.Gordon reported in as eligible. 17-N.Agholor left end pushed ob at BAL 33 for 1 yard (32-E.Weddle).

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.83 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.37 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model