Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 88

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

(1:50) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to PHI 41, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-84-D.Waller.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.75 EP
64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 88, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model