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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 27

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(4:47) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.32 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model