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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 71

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(:17) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 51 yards to BAL 20, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds. PENALTY on BAL-24-S.Wright, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.93 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model