Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 90

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Atlanta Falcons 28

(9:28) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to ATL 43, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.54 EP
59% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 90, worth -5.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model