Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- ATL offense: +0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.265 vs Colin Kaepernick (SF) -0.066 EPA/dropback
- SF offense: -0.103 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- SF defense: +0.123 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- ATL defense: +0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
SF
ATL
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:35 TD ATL (10:35) 24-D.Freeman right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – ATL 6
- Q1 07:48 TD ATL (7:48) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 18-T.Gabriel for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – ATL 13
- Q1 00:47 TD ATL (:47) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – ATL 20
- Q2 12:50 TD SF (12:50) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short left to 88-G.Celek for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – ATL 21
- Q2 04:36 TD ATL (4:36) (No Huddle) 24-D.Freeman right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – ATL 27
- Q2 00:17 TD SF (:17) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short left to 81-R.Streater for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – ATL 28
- Q3 06:34 FG ATL (6:34) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. SF 13 – ATL 31
- Q3 01:49 TD ATL (1:49) 24-D.Freeman left end for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – ATL 37
- Q4 01:13 FG ATL (1:13) 3-M.Bryant 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. SF 13 – ATL 41
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EPp(convert) 70%
(13:45) 5-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to ATL 11, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-E.Weems pushed ob at SF 47 for 42 yards (5-B.Pinion).
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Q1 SF 4th & 11 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(6:40) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to ATL 45, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.
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Q2 SF 4th & 11 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(8:15) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to ATL 12, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-E.Weems to SF 49 for 39 yards (85-J.Hamm; 46-M.Ball). PENALTY on ATL-16-J.Hardy, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at ATL 12.
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Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(9:28) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to ATL 43, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 32Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 73%
(6:34) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(4:06) 5-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to ATL 23, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.
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Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 59%
(:54) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to ATL 22, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 12 at the 39Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 57%
(11:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 26 yards to SF 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.
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Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 32%
(6:23) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to ATL 9, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 23 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 87%
(1:13) 3-M.Bryant 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.