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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 39

Atlanta Falcons 38 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 26 yards to SF 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.21 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP