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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 1

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 70-R.Odhiambo reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson sacked at ARI 8 for -7 yards (95-R.Gunter).

The Three Options

GO +4.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.25 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.37 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model