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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Saturday 2016-12-24 · 16:25 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 9.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

ARI
35.1%
SEA
64.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA defense: -0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • ARI offense: -0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • SEA on 3 more days rest than ARI

Predicted Final Score

ARI 21
–
SEA 26
Projected margin: SEA by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

ARI

Marcus Cooper CB Out Back
D.J. Humphries T Out Concussion
John Brown WR Questionable Illness
Brandon Williams CB Questionable Back

SEA

C.J. Prosise RB Out Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 34
–
SEA 31

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:56 TD ARI (7:56) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – SEA 0
  • Q2 04:04 TD ARI (4:04) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep middle to 14-J.Nelson for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – SEA 0
  • Q2 00:18 FG SEA (:18) 4-S.Hauschka 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. ARI 14 – SEA 3
  • Q3 08:25 TD SEA (8:25) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 15-J.Kearse for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 14 – SEA 9
  • Q4 13:36 TD ARI (13:36) 61-C.Toner reported in as eligible. 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 20 – SEA 10
  • Q4 08:57 TD SEA (8:57) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 21 – SEA 16
  • Q4 06:50 TD ARI (6:50) 31-D.Johnson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 27 – SEA 18
  • Q4 04:15 FG ARI (4:15) 7-C.Catanzaro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-6-M.Wile. ARI 31 – SEA 18
  • Q4 02:56 TD SEA (2:56) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 88-J.Graham for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 31 – SEA 24
  • Q4 01:05 TD SEA (1:05) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 10-P.Richardson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 31 – SEA 31
  • Q4 00:03 FG ARI (:03) 7-C.Catanzaro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-6-M.Wile. ARI 34 – SEA 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:43) 9-J.Ryan punts 50 yards to ARI 26, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson. PENALTY on ARI-28-J.Bethel, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 26.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 16 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:16) 6-M.Wile punts 59 yards to SEA 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 34 for 3 yards (96-K.Martin).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 17 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 82%

    (:38) 4-S.Hauschka 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-R.Gunter), Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. Ball rolled dead at the goal line.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 11 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:29) 6-M.Wile punts 42 yards to SEA 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 15 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:40) 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to ARI 36, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 25%

    (5:29) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to ARI 9, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (1:15) 70-R.Odhiambo reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson sacked at ARI 8 for -7 yards (95-R.Gunter).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (:18) 4-S.Hauschka 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 7 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 66%

    (5:55) 7-C.Catanzaro 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 11 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 40%

    (3:38) 9-J.Ryan punts 6 yards to ARI 39, Center-48-N.Frese. 55-Ch.Jones to ARI 39 for no gain. Offically not a block, but ball deflected by AZ57 Okafor.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 15-J.Kearse [54-S.Moore].

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 86%

    (4:15) 7-C.Catanzaro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 8 at the 84 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:31) 6-M.Wile punts 39 yards to SEA 45, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-46-A.Brewer. PENALTY on ARI-33-K.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 45.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 84%

    (:03) 7-C.Catanzaro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-6-M.Wile.