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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 45

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 9-J.Ryan punts 6 yards to ARI 39, Center-48-N.Frese. 55-Ch.Jones to ARI 39 for no gain. Offically not a block, but ball deflected by AZ57 Okafor.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.67 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model