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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 18 – Arizona Cardinals 28

What Actually Happened

(5:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 15-J.Kearse [54-S.Moore].

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.19 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 28, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model