4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 84

Arizona Cardinals 31 – Seattle Seahawks 25

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 6-M.Wile punts 39 yards to SEA 45, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-46-A.Brewer. PENALTY on ARI-33-K.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.90 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 84, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 42, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model