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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 25

Arizona Cardinals 31 – Seattle Seahawks 31

What Actually Happened

(:03) 7-C.Catanzaro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +1.35 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model