Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 54

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(11:49) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to BAL 15, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.10 EP
66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 54, worth -2.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model