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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2016-12-25 · 16:30 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

BAL
32.3%
PIT
67.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PIT: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.142 vs Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.056 EPA/dropback
  • PIT offense: +0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • BAL offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 19
–
PIT 25
Projected margin: PIT by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

BAL

Kamalei Correa LB Out Ribs
Jimmy Smith CB Out Ankle
Alex Lewis T Questionable Ankle
Steve Smith WR Questionable Thigh
Brent Urban DE Questionable Illness
Anthony Levine LB Questionable Toe

PIT

Shamarko Thomas S Out Concussion
Sammie Coates WR Doubtful Hamstring
Ladarius Green TE Doubtful Concussion
Stephon Tuitt DE Questionable Knee
Anthony Chickillo LB Questionable Ankle
Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Questionable Foot
Ricardo Mathews DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 27
–
PIT 31

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:18 TD PIT (7:18) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 85-X.Grimble for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – PIT 6
  • Q1 05:54 FG BAL (5:54) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – PIT 7
  • Q2 00:22 FG BAL (:22) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Penalty on PIT-25-A.Burns, Defensive Offside, declined. BAL 6 – PIT 7
  • Q3 13:32 TD BAL (13:32) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep middle to 89-S.Smith for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 12 – PIT 7
  • Q3 09:37 FG PIT (9:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. BAL 14 – PIT 10
  • Q3 01:32 FG BAL (1:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 17 – PIT 10
  • Q4 14:21 FG BAL (14:21) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 20 – PIT 10
  • Q4 11:48 TD PIT (11:48) (Shotgun) 26-L.Bell left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – PIT 16
  • Q4 07:27 TD PIT (7:27) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 26-L.Bell for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – PIT 23
  • Q4 01:25 TD BAL (1:25) (Shotgun) 44-K.Juszczyk up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 26 – PIT 24
  • Q4 00:13 TD PIT (:13) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 84-A.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 27 – PIT 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 48%

    (12:37) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 27 yards to PIT 13, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 11 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 85%

    (5:54) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:01) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 55 yards to BAL 13, Center-60-G.Warren. 12-M.Campanaro pushed ob at BAL 27 for 14 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:49) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to BAL 15, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:52) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to BAL 17, Center-60-G.Warren. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 28 for 11 yards (44-T.Matakevich, 55-A.Moats).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 90%

    (:22) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Penalty on PIT-25-A.Burns, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 91%

    (9:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 16 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 77%

    (1:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (14:21) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 18%

    (10:12) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.