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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 40

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:37) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 27 yards to PIT 13, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.47 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP