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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 19

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Penalty on PIT-25-A.Burns, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.44 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model