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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 18

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(9:37) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.04 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 18, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 28, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP