4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 53

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:12) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.70 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.76 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP