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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 78

Houston Texans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:17) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to CIN 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 23 for no gain (33-A.Hunt).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.52 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 78, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 35, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model