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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Saturday 2016-12-24 · 20:25 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

CIN
52.3%
HOU
47.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Tom Savage (HOU) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample
  • QB edge to HOU: Tom Savage (HOU) +0.135 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.119 EPA/dropback (HOU starting Tom Savage in place of Brock Osweiler)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 23
–
HOU 22
Projected margin: CIN by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

CIN

Clint Boling G Out Shoulder
Vontaze Burfict LB Out Knee
Tyler Eifert TE Out Back
Tyler Kroft TE Out Knee
A.J. Green WR Questionable Hamstring
Jeremy Hill RB Questionable Knee
Michael Johnson DE Questionable Shoulder

HOU

Lamar Miller RB Questionable Ankle
Johnathan Joseph CB Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 10
–
HOU 12

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 00:05 FG CIN (:05) 4-R.Bullock 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – HOU 0
  • Q3 09:09 FG HOU (9:09) 8-N.Novak 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. CIN 3 – HOU 3
  • Q4 13:34 FG HOU (13:34) 8-N.Novak 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. CIN 3 – HOU 6
  • Q4 10:59 TD CIN (10:59) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 11-B.LaFell for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-35-E.Pleasant, Defensive Offside, declined. CIN 9 – HOU 6
  • Q4 08:47 TD HOU (8:47) (Shotgun) 28-A.Blue left tackle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 10 – HOU 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:23) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 11 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:15) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to CIN 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 16 for 7 yards (45-J.Prosch; 43-C.Moore).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (7:25) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 34-T.Ervin pushed ob at HOU 22 for 7 yards (26-J.Shaw). (The Punt Hang Time was 4.56 seconds.)

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 17 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:31) 9-S.Lechler punts 41 yards to CIN 44, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-A.Jones to CIN 43 for -1 yards (50-A.Dent). (The Punt Hang Time was 4.50 seconds.)

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 8 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 45%

    (2:41) 10-K.Huber punts 31 yards to HOU 13, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (1:15) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to CIN 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, touched at CIN 28, and recovers at CIN 28. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 28 for no gain (20-D.Jones).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:22) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin. (The Punt Hang Time was 4.59 seconds.)

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:52) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to CIN 32, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 28 for -4 yards (20-D.Jones, 52-B.Peters).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (11:47) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to HOU 16, Center-46-C.Harris. 34-T.Ervin pushed ob at HOU 17 for 1 yard (26-J.Shaw).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:17) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to CIN 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 23 for no gain (33-A.Hunt).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 13 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:42) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 29 for 14 yards (47-P.Dawson). (The Punt Hang Time was 4.33 seconds.)

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:11) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 19 for 9 yards (43-C.Moore). PENALTY on CIN-42-C.Fejedelem, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at CIN 16. Penalty on CIN-53-M.Flowers, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (9:09) 8-N.Novak 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 13 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:16) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-C.Harris. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 24 for 10 yards (30-C.Peerman; 21-D.Dennard).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (13:34) 8-N.Novak 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 55%

    (11:48) 9-S.Lechler punts 31 yards to CIN 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. (The Punt Hang Time was 4.26 seconds.)

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 13 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:08) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 30%

    (3:56) 9-S.Lechler punts 42 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 15 for 7 yards (20-D.Jones; 33-A.Hunt). (The Punt Hang Time was 4.26 seconds.)

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 52 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 26%

    (1:25) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah to HOU 44 for 8 yards (29-A.Hal).