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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 7

Houston Texans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 8-N.Novak 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 7, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model