4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 61

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-C.Harris. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 24 for 10 yards (30-C.Peerman; 21-D.Dennard).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.47 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 20, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model