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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 40

Houston Texans 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 9-S.Lechler punts 31 yards to CIN 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. (The Punt Hang Time was 4.26 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.89 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model