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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 74

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Houston Texans 12

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.72 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model