4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 50

Houston Texans 12 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 9-S.Lechler punts 42 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 15 for 7 yards (20-D.Jones; 33-A.Hunt). (The Punt Hang Time was 4.26 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.07 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP