4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 52

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Houston Texans 12

What Actually Happened

(1:25) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah to HOU 44 for 8 yards (29-A.Hal).

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.78 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 52, worth -1.43 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model