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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 85

Houston Texans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 9-S.Lechler punts 41 yards to CIN 44, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-A.Jones to CIN 43 for -1 yards (50-A.Dent). (The Punt Hang Time was 4.50 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.76 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 85, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model