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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 80

Houston Texans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to CIN 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, touched at CIN 28, and recovers at CIN 28. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 28 for no gain (20-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.16 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP