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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 66

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin. (The Punt Hang Time was 4.59 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.75 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 24, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model