Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 76

Houston Texans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

(12:52) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to CIN 32, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 28 for -4 yards (20-D.Jones, 52-B.Peters).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.42 EP
51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model