Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 60

Denver Broncos 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

(12:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to KC 20, Center-45-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.60 EP
69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 60, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model