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Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2016-12-25 · 20:30 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

DEN
37.9%
KC
62.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.155 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • KC offense: -0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 18
–
KC 22
Projected margin: KC by 4 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

DEN

A.J. Derby TE Out Concussion
Virgil Green TE Out Concussion
Brandon Marshall LB Out Hamstring
T.J. Ward S Out Concussion
Derek Wolfe DE Questionable Neck

KC

Phillip Gaines CB Out Knee
Justin Houston LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 10
–
KC 33

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:05 TD KC (9:05) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 05:31 TD KC (5:31) 10-T.Hill left end for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – KC 13
  • Q1 01:57 TD DEN (1:57) 20-J.Forsett up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-55-D.Ford, Defensive Offside, declined. DEN 6 – KC 14
  • Q1 01:08 TD KC (1:08) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – KC 20
  • Q2 06:43 FG DEN (6:43) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 10 – KC 21
  • Q4 12:02 FG KC (12:02) 5-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. DEN 10 – KC 24
  • Q4 08:55 FG KC (8:55) 5-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. DEN 10 – KC 27
  • Q4 01:55 TD KC (1:55) Reported as eligible prior to play: B.Witzmann, Z.Fulton and D.Poe. Direct snap to 92-D.Poe. 92-D.Poe pass short middle to 84-D.Harris for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-84-D.Harris, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DEN 10 – KC 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 10 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to KC 23, Center-45-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 30%

    (7:39) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to KC 8, Center-45-T.Gafford. 10-T.Hill to KC 19 for 11 yards (48-S.Barrett).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 18%

    (4:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-45-T.Gafford, Touchback.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to KC 20, Center-45-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 88%

    (8:29) 5-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 64%

    (6:43) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:28) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to DEN 17, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:01) 9-R.Dixon punts 61 yards to KC 16, Center-45-T.Gafford. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 26 for 10 yards (34-W.Parks).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:20) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to DEN 33, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 61%

    (:23) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus left end to KC 29 for 6 yards (21-E.Murray).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:48) 2-D.Colquitt punts 52 yards to DEN 8, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-K.Raymond MUFFS catch, touched at DEN 8, and recovers at DEN 8. 19-K.Raymond to DEN 8 for no gain (57-D.Alexander).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 14 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:35) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to KC 16, Center-45-T.Gafford. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 19 for 3 yards (34-W.Parks).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 20 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 40%

    (4:02) 2-D.Colquitt punts 29 yards to DEN 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-K.Raymond.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to KC 41, Center-45-T.Gafford. 10-T.Hill to KC 38 for -3 yards (16-B.Fowler).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (12:02) 5-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 88%

    (8:55) 5-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 39 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 50%

    (:18) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 84-H.Krieger Coble to KC 26 for 13 yards (21-E.Murray).